Us Politics · resolved market
Will RFK Jr. debate Biden/Trump?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa650b0fc83f8b6063ed31d2fcee2c30c60405e7215341a5563f1236f5542a14d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $530,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $387,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $530,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes | 3c | 44,250$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +124%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1263…fd23backed Yes | 0c | 40,661$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…77e5backed Yes | 0c | 38,546$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c9…e28cbacked Yes | 0c | 36,153$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4599…df8fbacked Yes | 0c | 31,584$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df0…f855backed Yes | 0c | 23,939$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7294…6971backed Yes | 5c | 15,351$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…f7afbacked Yes | 21c | 14,477$3,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,006.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 79c | 12,645$9,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,669.39 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f3…d460backed Yes | 9c | 9,505$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 6,699$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.86 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…c7a9backed Yes | 8c | 4,997$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…14b3backed Yes | 16c | 4,958$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 24c | 4,822$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 15cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 6c | 4,434$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 1c | 4,003$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -65%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 3c | 3,860$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.58 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8966backed Yes | 6c | 3,686$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,046$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 80c | 1,897$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.42 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 68c | 1,869$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.06 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 79c | 1,712$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.95 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,482$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.87 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 6c | 1,423$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7a…7493backed Yes | 3c | 1,289$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43e…9c72backed Yes | 31c | 1,270$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…8553backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 18c | 996.5$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.01 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked No | 76c | 770$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.9 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.52per pick | 34cpaid | +216.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 9c | 563.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 9c | 530.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -93.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 5c | 528$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bff…64adbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…0abebacked No | 56c | 461.28$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +106%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…23d8backed Yes | 24c | 409.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a79…f197backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…85d9backed No | 77c | 378.65$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…9d70backed No | 78c | 350.42$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 78cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…fe69backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 19c | 311.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 20c | 307.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd39b…9343backed Yes | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4185…b27cbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed No | 79c | 273$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…7ffbbacked Yes | 7c | 251$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…e5b6backed Yes | 19c | 225$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 21c | 222$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf577…972ebacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…0312backed Yes | 17c | 188.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf223…7b5fbacked No | 79c | 178.21$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked No | 70c | 160.37$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…6a23backed Yes | 23c | 158.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e63…399abacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea0…efecbacked Yes | 15c | 136.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc58…45f3backed Yes | 21c | 131.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…49e9backed Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x109b…e57cbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1a…561ebacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed No | 77c | 71.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…2019backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e4…b364backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…1613backed No | 76c | 65.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…cbeebacked No | 77c | 40.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.