Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: KW vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa65593b89c32261494bf94c3b68d319da0a17bf35184512b5274628e531d3f85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof KW, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Spirit Academy | 63c | 1,014$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.98 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed KW | 39c | 999.98$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 304 | 52.3%159 W · 145 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…ca93backed KW | 20c | 999.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed KW | 36c | 845.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed KW | 38c | 799.97$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.25 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Spirit Academy | 61c | 676.65$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.89 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…ffe2backed Spirit Academy | 79c | 635.04$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.04 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked KW | 34c | 560.49$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.38 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Spirit Academy | 71c | 553.63$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.55 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a9…fc3fbacked KW | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…d70ebacked Spirit Academy | 71c | 471.43$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 208 | 59.6%124 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d7…17e6backed KW | 42c | 409.42$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed KW | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 324 | 45.1%146 W · 178 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked KW | 34c | 292.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Spirit Academy | 73c | 287.01$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed KW | 5c | 286.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Spirit Academy | 80c | 270.55$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7eb…eef7backed Spirit Academy | 65c | 250.78$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.77 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Spirit Academy | 57c | 249.37$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.23 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe434…f520backed Spirit Academy | 61c | 237.15$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked Spirit Academy | 78c | 208.61$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…6219backed Spirit Academy | 80c | 208$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…5d73backed KW | 18c | 202$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 133 | 36.8%49 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…a74cbacked KW | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Spirit Academy | 61c | 182.62$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Spirit Academy | 55c | 172.72$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Spirit Academy | 63c | 167.39$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked KW | 37c | 160$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Spirit Academy | 80c | 156$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Spirit Academy | 71c | 151.87$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed KW | 11c | 139.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Spirit Academy | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed KW | 15c | 104.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Spirit Academy | 74c | 101.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed KW | 37c | 81.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 141 | 36.9%52 W · 89 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…8c45backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…647dbacked KW | 24c | 65.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…a98abacked KW | 18c | 59.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…dee6backed Spirit Academy | 67c | 53.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Spirit Academy | 60c | 42.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked KW | 39c | 38.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Spirit Academy | 69c | 38.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Spirit Academy | 61c | 34.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Spirit Academy | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…cd45backed Spirit Academy | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Spirit Academy | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37f…6635backed Spirit Academy | 73c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: KW vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: KW vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group AKW won
- Dota 2: KW vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerKW won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.