Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa66345dd680d794e3711dbc0455bca5699a54df52a7baef08256acee6ad94185
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 11,479$4,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,998.59 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Over | 60c | 10,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 39c | 1,465$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.59 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed Under | 1c | 1,405$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.37 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +260.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Under | 3c | 1,200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0d…cce6backed Over | 51c | 1,008$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 65c | 910.25$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.31 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…3ed6backed Over | 24c | 800$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 29c | 759.45$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.59 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 23c | 599.68$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.82 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…94b4backed Under | 35c | 457.14$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 78c | 330.13$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.5 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…63e6backed Over | 77c | 324.68$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 80c | 312.5$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Over | 49c | 304.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 80c | 255.65$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.35 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 58c | 171.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4eb…5857backed Over | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Over | 63c | 126.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 28c | 106.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…efdabacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 15c | 98.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Over | 22c | 96.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 21c | 95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 79.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 38c | 73.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 21c | 62.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 22c | 56.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 78c | 52.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Over | 52c | 48.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e88…7d0cbacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Over | 65c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 53c | 34.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 68c | 29.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…6710backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f85…5013backed Over | 78c | 19.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5this page
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.