NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa68721a12b9a014b12e3986f06aab99bbcadf03cda1e5106252642661b0c00b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oilersof Oilers, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Oilers | 51c | 16,513$8,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,129.35 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Ducks | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a10…71a6backed Ducks | 52c | 6,050$3,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,146 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…1087backed Oilers | 48c | 2,200$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8c…78f3backed Oilers | 48c | 2,150$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Ducks | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Ducks | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0d…e499backed Oilers | 48c | 1,700$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Ducks | 51c | 1,200$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.99 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Ducks | 50c | 862$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.11 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Ducks | 50c | 576.39$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.2 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed Ducks | 35c | 500$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Oilers | 70c | 411.91$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.39 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Ducks | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Ducks | 49c | 326.53$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Oilers | 50c | 306$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Oilers | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Ducks | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ducks | 52c | 295.58$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.43 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Oilers | 50c | 244.6$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.44 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Oilers | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ducks | 60c | 190.93$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.73 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Ducks | 51c | 190$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c0…1885backed Ducks | 53c | 183.19$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd72…cc45backed Ducks | 31c | 177.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Oilers | 47c | 154.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Oilers | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oilers | 48c | 148.75$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Oilers | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Oilers | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Ducks | 10c | 132.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 266 | 57.1%152 W · 114 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Ducks | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Oilers | 66c | 114.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Ducks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Ducks | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Oilers | 45c | 99.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3675…e4cdbacked Oilers | 50c | 99.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Oilers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Ducks | 16c | 91.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +14.5wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +218.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Ducks | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Ducks | 49c | 78.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Oilers | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Oilers | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Oilers | 48c | 72.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Oilers | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Ducks | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Ducks | 71c | 49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 164 | 47%77 W · 87 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed Ducks | 49c | 45.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Ducks | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Ducks | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Ducks | 50c | 40.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Ducks | 70c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…b163backed Ducks | 49c | 37.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Oilers | 52c | 37.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Ducks | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda2c…aa16backed Oilers | 35c | 31.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Ducks | 50c | 31.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Ducks | 50c | 30.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Ducks | 50c | 27.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Ducks | 51c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Ducks | 50c | 24.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Oilers | 71c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Ducks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. OilersOilers won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.