NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb60310d107d4e1eccf1c84c46719c1654c958692aaa6a28ea5370e45f75b4ac8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 39c | 1,002$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.81 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…d22abacked Under | 74c | 810$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 455.08$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.36 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 26c | 450$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 61c | 357.55$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.11 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 62c | 298.62$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.14 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 61c | 295.51$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.17 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Under | 56c | 209$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 64c | 204.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 31c | 202.37$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 64c | 182.81$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 36c | 164.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Under | 57c | 147$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 164 | 47%77 W · 87 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Over | 37c | 111$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Over | 37c | 110$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Over | 37c | 110$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Over | 37c | 89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 35c | 87.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Over | 37c | 85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Over | 37c | 79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Over | 37c | 78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Over | 37c | 78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 36c | 77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Over | 37c | 74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Under | 63c | 71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Over | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Over | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Over | 37c | 63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Over | 37c | 59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +11.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Over | 37c | 49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Under | 63c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Under | 63c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 26c | 45.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Under | 63c | 43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Over | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Under | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Under | 63c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Under | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Under | 63c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Under | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Under | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Under | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Under | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Under | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Under | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Under | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Under | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Under | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +5.9wins | +0.37per pick | 51cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Under | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Under | 63c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Under | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Under | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Under | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Under | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Under | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Under | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 62c | 17.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Under | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Under | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Under | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Under | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Under | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Under | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Under | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Under | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5this page
- Ducks vs. OilersOilers won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.