College Football · resolved market
Colorado State vs. Boise State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa68d83aff4688d6771e78d33a9637af1fd4252d224264d5f72697332fbb961cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boise Stateof Colorado State, Boise State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Colorado State | 12c | 31,172$3,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,740.6 | 127 | 18.9%24 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Colorado State | 10c | 15,150$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colorado State | 12c | 12,627$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.81 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Colorado State | 11c | 8,649$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.08 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Colorado State | 12c | 7,197$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.41 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Colorado State | 11c | 5,501$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.89 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Colorado State | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Colorado State | 11c | 2,482$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.59 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Colorado State | 10c | 2,250$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Colorado State | 15c | 1,800$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Colorado State | 13c | 1,583$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.31 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Colorado State | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Colorado State | 11c | 1,500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Colorado State | 12c | 992.23$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Colorado State | 12c | 871$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Colorado State | 8c | 600.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 139 | 33.1%46 W · 93 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fc…87cdbacked Colorado State | 13c | 556$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Colorado State | 11c | 460.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…c657backed Colorado State | 13c | 409$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Colorado State | 12c | 371.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed Colorado State | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…1351backed Colorado State | 15c | 300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Colorado State | 13c | 276$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 216 | 29.2%63 W · 153 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50db…28e8backed Colorado State | 13c | 259$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Colorado State | 12c | 211$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa341…fc86backed Colorado State | 13c | 211$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a43…2fcebacked Colorado State | 12c | 210$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Colorado State | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b7…0a0cbacked Colorado State | 13c | 183$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Colorado State | 12c | 167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Colorado State | 14c | 149.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…6576backed Colorado State | 14c | 148.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…25c7backed Colorado State | 13c | 135$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Colorado State | 12c | 135$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…2973backed Colorado State | 13c | 113$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0108…a80fbacked Colorado State | 13c | 112$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…ba47backed Colorado State | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Colorado State | 13c | 102.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d5…3d73backed Colorado State | 13c | 84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4605…e5afbacked Colorado State | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado State vs. Boise Statethis page
- Colorado State vs. Boise State: O/U 44.5Over won
- O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Boise State (-16.5)Boise State won
- Spread: Boise State (-17.5)Boise State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.