NFL · resolved market
Will a No. 1 seed win Super Bowl LX
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa710cdc8b23c2ae2ee5c9bc81a686cd6bc3e826e8a730215993b28cb378a29ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,361$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 626.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 75c | 439.96$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.68 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked No | 34c | 244.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f4…fc69backed No | 32c | 198$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…d704backed No | 32c | 197$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d40…16d6backed No | 32c | 194$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b5…99fbbacked No | 32c | 191$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1b…b00dbacked No | 32c | 183$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…4e41backed No | 32c | 177$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 71c | 173.95$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x560f…3c31backed No | 32c | 109$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1978…6cf1backed Yes | 68c | 94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…81f8backed Yes | 68c | 93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa92c…9306backed Yes | 68c | 92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…aaa2backed Yes | 68c | 92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705c…390bbacked Yes | 68c | 91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c02…b1a6backed Yes | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe4…223fbacked Yes | 68c | 89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cb…6ea7backed Yes | 68c | 87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0447…a14ebacked Yes | 68c | 86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…fe67backed Yes | 68c | 86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf45…9d6fbacked Yes | 68c | 86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…3be4backed No | 30c | 85.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…16bcbacked Yes | 68c | 83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9a…8435backed Yes | 68c | 83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd20…bf35backed Yes | 68c | 82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b6…ded6backed Yes | 68c | 82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2010…0ec7backed No | 32c | 67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked No | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 32c | 51.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37dd…28e0backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 67c | 16.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a No. 1 seed win Super Bowl LXthis page
- Will a No. 2 seed win Super Bowl LXNo won
- Will a No. 5 seed win Super Bowl LXNo won
- Will a No. 7 seed win Super Bowl LXNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.