Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa716e55cc7272b1e05c3d01ccf1c0073aab4509e6e8c5a72095a7d70c2e1d086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6650…5097backed Yes | 8c | 1,183$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 1,170$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.74 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 881.09$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.69 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 30c | 586.5$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.95 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 72c | 512.29$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.98 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 27c | 499.73$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.86 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked No | 60c | 327.86$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.4 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 28c | 267.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1649…7d8abacked Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 86 | 62.8%54 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 41c | 118$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Yes | 40c | 118$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 40c | 104.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c06dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Yes | 53c | 91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 47c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Yes | 40c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 75c | 51.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Yes | 40c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 50.9%147 W · 142 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 59c | 28.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked No | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 182 | 51.6%94 W · 88 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will Derby County FC vs. Wrexham AFC end in a draw?No won
- Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.