Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC vs. Wrexham AFC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x886f507621af3597e512812faa2cc5e43d312bd30b300e7a43c39f46666b7582
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 1,263$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.13 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 927.99$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.62 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 32c | 313.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 68c | 123.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 481 | 50.9%245 W · 236 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Yes | 31c | 109$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 68c | 98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Yes | 31c | 97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7349…8a6dbacked No | 71c | 91.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Yes | 31c | 86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 32c | 81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed Yes | 40c | 62.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 31c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 69c | 50.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 76c | 46.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked No | 75c | 21.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…1214backed No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 69c | 16.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC vs. Wrexham AFC end in a draw?this page
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-01-04?No won
- Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.