CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: NRG vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa72b6c99783f7166a6ae2c57c5d1cb7ab377ee854c87b35787b2c8458f0f6272
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NRGof NRG, fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eb0…d25bbacked fnatic | 10c | 25,912$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,598.78 | 271 | 33.2%90 W · 181 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked fnatic | 52c | 6,415$3,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,327.1 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…9f6fbacked NRG | 56c | 5,384$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,373.63 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed fnatic | 40c | 4,891$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960.92 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed NRG | 45c | 4,209$1,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,301.55 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked NRG | 34c | 2,510$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.75 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed fnatic | 49c | 2,384$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.4 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed fnatic | 67c | 1,273$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.66 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked fnatic | 70c | 1,203$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.03 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed NRG | 30c | 1,200$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…f1babacked fnatic | 69c | 746$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.74 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked fnatic | 10c | 627$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…cfedbacked fnatic | 7c | 423.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed fnatic | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked fnatic | 22c | 400.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked fnatic | 60c | 374.34$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed fnatic | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked NRG | 80c | 350$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 656 | 62.3%409 W · 247 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed NRG | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 970 | 40.7%395 W · 575 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed NRG | 29c | 233.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.12 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9f…4cc8backed NRG | 32c | 217.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.94 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…b518backed fnatic | 71c | 200.75$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644e…ff58backed fnatic | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked fnatic | 34c | 199$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 1,256 | 46.7%587 W · 669 L | +17.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…556cbacked NRG | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 323 | 52%168 W · 155 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked NRG | 38c | 185.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.67 | 667 | 53.1%354 W · 313 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe030…8d5fbacked fnatic | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…b832backed fnatic | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed NRG | 32c | 110$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…cc30backed fnatic | 20c | 106.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed NRG | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad3…1ad5backed fnatic | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -9.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee86…07d8backed fnatic | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb819…cc67backed NRG | 65c | 93.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…1fd5backed fnatic | 30c | 86.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf376…953abacked fnatic | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e1…e14ebacked fnatic | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed fnatic | 38c | 65.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 47.8%88 W · 96 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5681…b253backed fnatic | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…ae6ebacked NRG | 62c | 54.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked NRG | 29c | 54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked NRG | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18d9…d560backed fnatic | 71c | 33.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…2ab9backed NRG | 64c | 29.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: NRG vs fnatic - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: NRG vs fnatic (BO3)fnatic won
- Counter-Strike: NRG vs fnatic - Map 2 Winnerfnatic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.