Tennis · resolved market
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, Qualification: Sonay Kartal vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa73a9a615332f1dbe48e7baef140c7bd2dd5675fcb33bd461647725ef5f21e6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kartalof Kartal, Sasnovich
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Sasnovich | 2c | 4,193$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Sasnovich | 3c | 3,178$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sasnovich | 12c | 2,939$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.6 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…4d18backed Sasnovich | 15c | 1,036$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Sasnovich | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1,161 | 37.6%437 W · 724 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Kartal | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 139 | 34.5%48 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Sasnovich | 19c | 696$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.96 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…7295backed Kartal | 76c | 605.76$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.76 | 186 | 63.4%118 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked Kartal | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 268 | 47%126 W · 142 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sasnovich | 19c | 380.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Sasnovich | 8c | 365$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Sasnovich | 4c | 290$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…02c6backed Sasnovich | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 7.5%6 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Sasnovich | 18c | 257.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 288 | 33.3%96 W · 192 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Sasnovich | 6c | 212.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Kartal | 79c | 210.91$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Sasnovich | 7c | 205.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Sasnovich | 16c | 199.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Kartal | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Kartal | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Kartal | 76c | 131.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Sasnovich | 18c | 123$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Sasnovich | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Kartal | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Kartal | 78c | 96.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 87 | 67.8%59 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Sasnovich | 20c | 94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…cbfdbacked Sasnovich | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Sasnovich | 14c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 692 | 49.6%343 W · 349 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe113…375dbacked Sasnovich | 26c | 62.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Kartal | 75c | 61.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Sasnovich | 21c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Kartal | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Sasnovich | 35c | 48.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…e7babacked Kartal | 79c | 34.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Kartal | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Kartal | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…fb78backed Kartal | 60c | 25.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Kartal | 78c | 23.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…058dbacked Kartal | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.