South American Leagues · resolved market
Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa764e95402cb8da71eafedbd07b8cf31b96d851a39bf9f1240a120abc4e201bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 4,002$2,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,996.51 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 1,618$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.7 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 18c | 1,592$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.8 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 38c | 1,227$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Over | 33c | 1,005$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.65 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 72c | 819.44$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 766.38$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.19 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 40c | 741.38$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.9 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 57c | 536.3$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.52 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 451.33$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.55 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…c99abacked Over | 44c | 446.93$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.65 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 29c | 347.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 30c | 299.05$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 43c | 249$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.46 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 241.93$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.43 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…b91dbacked Under | 49c | 202.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 31c | 159.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 63c | 157.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…1b63backed Over | 72c | 136.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…4c5cbacked Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 29c | 118.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 39c | 114.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 47c | 112.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 72c | 101.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Over | 55c | 89.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 32c | 61.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…d6f5backed Over | 53c | 53.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 53c | 51.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 51.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…2ba0backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 41c | 41.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 44c | 40.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x778a…7a2abacked Over | 59c | 40.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…7c24backed Over | 31c | 35.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 52c | 25.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 74c | 19.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda25…abafbacked Over | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5this page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.