TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, Clippers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,857
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,002

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,857 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83b9…6124backed Nuggets49c11,621$5,648 inWon+$5,973.2136148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Clippers51c6,695$3,415 inLost-$3,414.589,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Nuggets51c6,503$3,316 inWon+$3,187.0116547.3%78 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+56.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Clippers52c5,000$2,600 inLost-$2,60066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Clippers49c3,279$1,607 inLost-$1,606.594,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Clippers49c1,153$565 inLost-$565.448,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd5c…8ae8backed Nuggets48c1,063$510 inWon+$552.52948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Clippers53c943.4$500 inLost-$50021142.7%90 W · 121 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Clippers52c565$294 inLost-$293.83,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Clippers77c510$393 inLost-$392.720034%68 W · 132 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb6…15cdbacked Clippers55c500$275 inLost-$2752152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Clippers4c303.02$11 inLost-$10.662,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb6…9aabbacked Clippers54c277.78$150 inLost-$1501540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Clippers52c147.5$77 inLost-$76.72,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aea…317bbacked Clippers55c54.44$30 inLost-$29.94425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.