NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89f6b8a3259db0e2eb29167552a3f62fb35b46ee393527cf1ab62be4253a5670
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Clippers | 51c | 66,985$34,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,462.68 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 48c | 38,725$18,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,963.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets | 48c | 11,935$5,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,180.87 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…f932backed Nuggets | 52c | 6,629$3,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,181.92 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nuggets | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nuggets | 46c | 2,232$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.55 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Nuggets | 52c | 2,130$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.47 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Clippers | 49c | 2,057$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.71 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Nuggets | 52c | 1,921$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.15 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Nuggets | 52c | 1,810$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.8 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Clippers | 54c | 1,800$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe887…05cabacked Clippers | 77c | 1,709$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Clippers | 47c | 1,421$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Nuggets | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Nuggets | 11c | 823.32$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.98 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nuggets | 48c | 712$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.24 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 48c | 712$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.24 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Clippers | 54c | 653.59$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 51c | 571.09$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.58 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Nuggets | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Clippers | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Nuggets | 15c | 400$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Nuggets | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 784 | 45.8%359 W · 425 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Clippers | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Clippers | 48c | 223.75$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Nuggets | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…e0a6backed Nuggets | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Nuggets | 51c | 71.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Nuggets | 55c | 66.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Nuggets | 53c | 55.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Clippers | 48c | 54.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Nuggets | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Clippers | 47c | 47.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Nuggets | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0237…e7b2backed Nuggets | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Nuggets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. ClippersNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.