NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca6c981925d66f6d93142750294946cfde00246262abf522c6becffcafc7ed19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Nuggets | 56c | 12,362$6,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,439.2 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Clippers | 44c | 12,006$5,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,294.77 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Clippers | 50c | 4,080$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040.1 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Nuggets | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Clippers | 47c | 2,726$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Clippers | 48c | 2,494$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.6 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…f7aabacked Nuggets | 57c | 2,006$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.52 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Clippers | 45c | 1,961$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Nuggets | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers | 44c | 928.46$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.52 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nuggets | 50c | 918.6$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.3 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 55c | 677.85$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nuggets | 56c | 652.29$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.69 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Nuggets | 51c | 642$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.58 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Nuggets | 57c | 614.04$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.04 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Clippers | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Clippers | 44c | 507.72$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.87 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets | 49c | 413.86$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.07 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Nuggets | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Nuggets | 52c | 349$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.52 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Nuggets | 51c | 301.17$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.32 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Nuggets | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Clippers | 45c | 295.1$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.76 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Clippers | 48c | 267.45$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db5…4d00backed Clippers | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…8b7abacked Clippers | 50c | 188$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaac1…8dc4backed Nuggets | 50c | 178$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nuggets | 53c | 170$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Clippers | 53c | 170$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Clippers | 51c | 166.31$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Nuggets | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Nuggets | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa652…ff5abacked Nuggets | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8835…7d7ebacked Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x473c…4d1ebacked Clippers | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…3914backed Nuggets | 51c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Nuggets | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Nuggets | 48c | 68.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…b9f8backed Clippers | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -6.3wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -27%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Nuggets | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Nuggets | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Clippers | 52c | 58.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 51c | 58.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Nuggets | 56c | 55.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Nuggets | 48c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Clippers | 52c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Nuggets | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf1…623abacked Nuggets | 57c | 50.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Nuggets | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Clippers | 44c | 36.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Nuggets | 56c | 36.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e33…7deebacked Nuggets | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548b…8390backed Nuggets | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Nuggets | 49c | 31.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Nuggets | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…14dcbacked Nuggets | 57c | 18.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. ClippersNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.