NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x156ffd2acc1258ddf409475c57b3bdbe217227b28a63b8112a26aa8b3d50e01b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Clippers | 43c | 6,708$2,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,902.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Nuggets | 58c | 5,216$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,216.15 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Clippers | 47c | 3,708$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.94 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Clippers | 42c | 1,229$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.13 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Clippers | 41c | 1,124$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Clippers | 47c | 1,118$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.27 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Nuggets | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Nuggets | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Clippers | 51c | 716.28$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.68 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Nuggets | 52c | 655$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Nuggets | 52c | 601.91$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.59 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Nuggets | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Nuggets | 61c | 457.2$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.37 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Nuggets | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Nuggets | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers | 40c | 378.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.75 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Nuggets | 51c | 356.61$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.74 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Clippers | 39c | 349.89$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.59 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Nuggets | 54c | 268$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.28 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Clippers | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Clippers | 46c | 241.27$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.77 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Nuggets | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Nuggets | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c773backed Nuggets | 53c | 139.62$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Clippers | 41c | 139$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Nuggets | 58c | 129.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…51dabacked Nuggets | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Nuggets | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Nuggets | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Clippers | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Clippers | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Nuggets | 61c | 98.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Nuggets | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Nuggets | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Nuggets | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Nuggets | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Nuggets | 55c | 76.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Nuggets | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nuggets | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Nuggets | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Nuggets | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nuggets | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Clippers | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…3864backed Nuggets | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…4b15backed Nuggets | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Nuggets | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Nuggets | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Nuggets | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…3ae9backed Nuggets | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…03efbacked Nuggets | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Nuggets | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Nuggets | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Nuggets | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Nuggets | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…aec0backed Nuggets | 60c | 33.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Nuggets | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e33…7deebacked Nuggets | 60c | 32.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…c3e4backed Nuggets | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Nuggets | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Clippers | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Nuggets | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8043…7fe3backed Nuggets | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. ClippersNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.