South American Leagues · resolved market
Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7a034aa370adc351768f3a2a777a5c7017aab71c604530dd632817a54755e7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2905…28e6backed Under | 57c | 531.59$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Under | 57c | 292.26$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.59 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 32c | 243.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 217.28$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 724 | 50.6%366 W · 358 L | -24.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 73c | 202.15$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 771 | 51.4%396 W · 375 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 57c | 161.2$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 137.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 38c | 136.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 406 | 51%207 W · 199 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 15c | 111.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Over | 74c | 105.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 57c | 105$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 43c | 96.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 16c | 79.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 37c | 76.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 59c | 66.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 51c | 63.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed Under | 38c | 51.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 43c | 46.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Over | 45c | 38.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Over | 43c | 35.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Under | 57c | 34.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 57c | 33.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 64c | 30.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 75c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.