South American Leagues · resolved market
Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbed4c703af9b349267e63ab38cf255c0bb2884b3791fe820e7c03a08e8dda5b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 2,001$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.84 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…bac6backed Over | 57c | 1,851$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 642.94$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.27 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 55c | 569.52$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.88 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 522.59$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.26 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…12aebacked Over | 61c | 522.48$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.7 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 40c | 499.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.98 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 60c | 435.3$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.18 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 399.51$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.97 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 44c | 379.28$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.79 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Over | 32c | 299.75$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 283.25$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.72 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Under | 77c | 256.94$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.21 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 40c | 216.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 47c | 196.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.89 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 62c | 168.72$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…01b3backed Over | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…6e5bbacked Over | 15c | 163.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.45 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 58c | 126.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 60c | 115.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 77c | 113.65$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 88 | 87.5%77 W · 11 L | +19.9wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +42%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 55c | 109.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 46c | 100.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…d727backed Under | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0687…77bfbacked Over | 42c | 61.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Over | 49c | 58.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…e926backed Under | 52c | 54.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa91f…ce84backed Over | 34c | 51.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 46c | 40.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 40c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bca…24aebacked Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…9b6ebacked Over | 47c | 29.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.