South American Leagues · resolved market
Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb53163cd362ca93ddf6e209262c6cc79abc5b85244eb7b5b490df7d18bf40630
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 68c | 1,735$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.83 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99e…4d03backed Under | 2c | 1,244$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +1,288.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 1,066$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.38 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 35c | 941.67$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.17 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 45c | 816.58$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.46 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 36c | 683.33$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.11 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 63c | 431.74$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.43 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 417.69$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.07 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 340.05$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.74 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 64c | 207.91$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 36c | 167.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 31c | 142.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…6e5bbacked Over | 38c | 140.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 33c | 93.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 27c | 88.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.21 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 73c | 78.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Over | 62c | 62.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 59c | 54.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 53.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…d727backed Over | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 36c | 48.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e2…8fb6backed Over | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 56c | 25.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +8.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed Over | 55c | 19.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.