Premier League · resolved market
Will Stoke City FC win on 2025-11-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7a14d9eae2ee4a29152091b4eb2d854634eb1d48215a03c353f3dbca4b9adcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 40c | 15,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,000 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 60c | 14,390$8,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,633.81 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 31c | 4,772$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.9 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 41c | 2,011$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.79 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 41c | 1,907$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.76 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 60c | 1,067$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.21 | 316 | 55.1%174 W · 142 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 58c | 825.52$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.8 | 466 | 51.9%242 W · 224 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 9c | 785.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 36c | 707.11$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.96 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 61c | 700.15$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.81 | 292 | 53.4%156 W · 136 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 40c | 572.64$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.58 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 62c | 494$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.17 | 670 | 42.2%283 W · 387 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 38c | 461.62$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.2 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 27c | 328.04$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.84 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 59c | 203.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 370 | 54.9%203 W · 167 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd077…b875backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…3272backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…bdc1backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…b993backed No | 59c | 83.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…962abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4584…fb0dbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…1176backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 255 | 45.5%116 W · 139 L | -18.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf409…8208backed Yes | 40c | 25.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…7643backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stoke City FC win on 2025-11-04?this page
- Will Oxford United FC vs. Stoke City FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Oxford United FC win on 2025-11-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.