TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New Mexico Lobosof New Mexico Lobos, Sam Houston Bearkats
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,188

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,188 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaca2…b9a1backed Sam Houston Bearkats45c14,990$6,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,791.3441752.5%219 W · 198 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked New Mexico Lobos53c10,214$5,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,813.72,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked New Mexico Lobos54c3,170$1,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,456.2212,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed New Mexico Lobos51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.9961652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed New Mexico Lobos53c2,433$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.1815557.4%89 W · 66 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New Mexico Lobos53c2,085$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.571,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Sam Houston Bearkats51c1,947$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.2557248.1%275 W · 297 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked New Mexico Lobos54c1,740$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.415858.2%92 W · 66 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Sam Houston Bearkats48c1,492$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.9639454.6%215 W · 179 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d66…22d1backed Sam Houston Bearkats49c1,182$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.017450%37 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Sam Houston Bearkats53c991.28$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.442445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sam Houston Bearkats46c843.48$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.425,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Sam Houston Bearkats49c800$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3929866.3%65 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked New Mexico Lobos55c699.99$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31516147.2%76 W · 85 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Sam Houston Bearkats46c569.51$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.9775447.1%355 W · 399 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Sam Houston Bearkats45c463.52$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.5821937.4%82 W · 137 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6e7…884cbacked New Mexico Lobos50c394.5$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.253265.6%21 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New Mexico Lobos53c320.57$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.123,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed New Mexico Lobos55c320$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14422043.2%95 W · 125 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Sam Houston Bearkats45c308.42$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.791,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea8d…e9d3backed New Mexico Lobos51c273.66$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.16352.4%33 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sam Houston Bearkats47c221.66$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.122,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Sam Houston Bearkats45c220.3$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1383350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Sam Houston Bearkats46c210.92$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0262140.4%251 W · 370 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Sam Houston Bearkats50c206.18$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0960548.9%296 W · 309 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed New Mexico Lobos55c204.63$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.081,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Sam Houston Bearkats45c195.62$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.031,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Sam Houston Bearkats47c175.95$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.722047.7%105 W · 115 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked New Mexico Lobos52c120.87$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.438350.6%42 W · 41 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38ef…8800backed New Mexico Lobos50c114.1$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.053366.7%22 W · 11 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+31.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed New Mexico Lobos55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4521455.6%119 W · 95 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83ea…c2efbacked Sam Houston Bearkats50c99.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5623054.3%125 W · 105 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed New Mexico Lobos48c77$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.723,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Sam Houston Bearkats50c73.35$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9130652%159 W · 147 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eaa…9baebacked New Mexico Lobos53c70.21$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3310458.7%61 W · 43 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed New Mexico Lobos53c56.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.462451.1%319 W · 305 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked New Mexico Lobos57c52.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.417745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked New Mexico Lobos51c48.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2448551.1%248 W · 237 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked New Mexico Lobos56c48.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3830152.8%159 W · 142 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed New Mexico Lobos52c47.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.016963.8%44 W · 25 L+10.0wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+32.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8393…4f91backed Sam Houston Bearkats48c43.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.021811.1%2 W · 16 L-5.2wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-79.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed New Mexico Lobos51c38.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.130050.7%152 W · 148 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed New Mexico Lobos51c38.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0932850%164 W · 164 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa427…f87fbacked Sam Houston Bearkats45c35.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.297657.9%44 W · 32 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed Sam Houston Bearkats48c32.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5814245.8%65 W · 77 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Sam Houston Bearkats47c24.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.857561.3%46 W · 29 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Sam Houston Bearkats48c24.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7950745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed New Mexico Lobos49c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.241,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Sam Houston Bearkats49c23.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.415850%79 W · 79 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe293…d3edbacked New Mexico Lobos53c22.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.744240.5%17 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed Sam Houston Bearkats49c20.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102360.9%14 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.