World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7af0677302e508e49ae90fc84f2cbc2ddaa0e3caf9d14eeb93a498a2a4f5876
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 1,377$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.65 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 46c | 240.09$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.49 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 57c | 217.62$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.61 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 47c | 181.91$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 179.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 163.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 162.29$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 47c | 151.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 54c | 135.41$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 47c | 124$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 94.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 56c | 70.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 40c | 59.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 40c | 52.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 42c | 36.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 56c | 31.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 42c | 26.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 77c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 18.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.