Premier League · resolved market
Will Chelsea vs. Fulham end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7b2ea402bfb7fcdf1a1bd4dd682c89e6df9d6bf9bc2f2b5098c742c3188b6c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 21c | 3,112$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,467.81 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…4374backed Yes | 79c | 2,726$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,153.56 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +379.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93ca…d65ebacked Yes | 73c | 2,699$1,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,962.12 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 65c | 1,517$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.08 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 19c | 1,500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…339bbacked No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7f63backed Yes | 21c | 957.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed No | 79c | 850.37$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.58 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 15c | 800$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 280 | 70%196 W · 84 L | +49.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 27c | 705.09$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.71 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed Yes | 21c | 482.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Yes | 70c | 428.48$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 17c | 391.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Yes | 15c | 340$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…b66cbacked Yes | 74c | 270.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 80c | 200.04$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…68acbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 20c | 183$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d6…1c32backed Yes | 78c | 143.14$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…3706backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -12.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x964b…167abacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8d…46babacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc92…26b9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 20c | 91.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 69c | 78.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 29c | 67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 119 | 15.1%18 W · 101 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…956fbacked Yes | 79c | 65.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Yes | 79c | 48.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 154 | 61%94 W · 60 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 22c | 45.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c0…2d68backed Yes | 80c | 24.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa89f…cb86backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chelsea vs. Fulham end in a draw?this page
- Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-26?No won
- Will Fulham win on 2024-12-26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.