Europa Conference League · resolved market
Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7c56277f0a88ade839db3838372561cc8cb2452928eac8351569e0339ae4a43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 9c | 5,994$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.67 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 13c | 3,256$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.08 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 2,287$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.72 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 14c | 2,058$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.07 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 15c | 989.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 473 | 42.1%199 W · 274 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 15c | 612.19$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 1,222 | 45.3%553 W · 669 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 15c | 298.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 326 | 36.5%119 W · 207 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…4324backed Over | 9c | 290.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Over | 11c | 268.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Over | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 12c | 210.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 15c | 171.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 495 | 55.4%274 W · 221 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 11c | 111.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 749 | 39.4%295 W · 454 L | -23.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 15c | 106.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 429 | 57.1%245 W · 184 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 343 | 23%79 W · 264 L | -43.3wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,199 | 47.5%569 W · 630 L | -5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 16c | 69.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 78c | 31.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Under | 78c | 24.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: FK Partizan Beograd (-1.5)Tobyl FK won
- Spread: Tobyl FK (-1.5)FK Partizan Beograd won
- Spread: Tobyl FK (-2.5)FK Partizan Beograd won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: FK Partizan Beograd O/U 0.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: FK Partizan Beograd O/U 1.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: FK Partizan Beograd O/U 2.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: O/U 0.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: O/U 2.5Over won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: O/U 3.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: Team to AdvanceFK Partizan Beograd won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: Tobyl FK O/U 1.5Under won
- Tobyl FK vs. FK Partizan Beograd: Tobyl FK O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.