Australian A League · resolved market
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-01-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7c5a88124e81945e71b9c8b42d3b34b238c800acd5b724cbd214021d00459a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 21c | 43,026$9,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,054.71 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 17,627$13,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,742.91 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 10,086$7,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,154.44 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 23c | 4,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 3,239$2,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.94 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed No | 78c | 1,529$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.38 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 78c | 1,255$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.1 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…62e8backed Yes | 5c | 1,204$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 7c | 1,122$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 20c | 999.92$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 79c | 976.16$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 12c | 655.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +413.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 22c | 636.36$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4610…0eb3backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 78c | 403.42$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…2de2backed No | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 4c | 371.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Yes | 22c | 210.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 21c | 180.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 21c | 162.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 20c | 149.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedc…8bcabacked Yes | 22c | 131.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…3e75backed Yes | 20c | 107$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 21c | 97.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Yes | 20c | 97.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…4884backed No | 79c | 86.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 79c | 79.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 79c | 70.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…8527backed No | 80c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Yes | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0a…37cbbacked No | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 79c | 46.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-01-06?this page
- Will Melbourne City FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-01-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.