Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9bcf5b9c1970277c8fc5f2e8c5ee3859f89d37b8d33704e9793d277925e70da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 1,508$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.78 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 28c | 1,493$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.48 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,260$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.2 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 821.1$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.31 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 27c | 728.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 635.53$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.95 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 537.15$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.03 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 16c | 472$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 80c | 397.3$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 25c | 313.59$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 75c | 268.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 16c | 250.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe968…de6fbacked No | 75c | 242.67$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 20c | 224.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 73c | 220.78$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 17c | 194.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed Yes | 13c | 154.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…5263backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 25c | 140.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92b…f80bbacked Yes | 11c | 135.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2316…b824backed Yes | 27c | 111$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…4c8cbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 85.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 27c | 74.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4610…0eb3backed Yes | 20c | 64.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 73c | 63.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…8ab5backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Yes | 24c | 58.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 77c | 41.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed No | 75c | 25.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked No | 74c | 23.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 75c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed No | 74c | 13.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne City FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-01-06?No won
- Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-01-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.