Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Level UP vs Aurora (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7d51a0c80425d951fe6be2070e7f5832b88825f516d26e7475d6960c731e66f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Level UP, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57b4…b46bbacked Level UP | 17c | 2,067$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.44 | 242 | 46.7%113 W · 129 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Level UP | 14c | 1,248$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.68 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 80c | 1,110$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.58 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed Level UP | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 190 | 31.6%60 W · 130 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Level UP | 5c | 639.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Level UP | 18c | 530.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2b…9e83backed Aurora | 80c | 489$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 184 | 46.7%86 W · 98 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Level UP | 17c | 435.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Level UP | 16c | 362.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Level UP | 18c | 349.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Level UP | 18c | 267$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Level UP | 20c | 244.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Level UP | 15c | 144.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…19abbacked Level UP | 17c | 131.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 115 | 3.5%4 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 79c | 131.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Level UP | 17c | 117.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…bddfbacked Level UP | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Level UP | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Level UP | 17c | 72.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 814 | 45.1%367 W · 447 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…c1c4backed Level UP | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Aurora | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Aurora (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.