Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Level UP vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x795d63af3b2ca10fc8bae536d275d80d638b9cd50a4de83795aecffb4a532db9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Level UP, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Level UP | 18c | 18,345$3,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,224.83 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Level UP | 20c | 17,827$3,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,488.18 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5789…6407backed Level UP | 22c | 6,727$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Level UP | 22c | 5,647$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…f6b5backed Aurora | 80c | 4,406$3,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Level UP | 11c | 2,922$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Aurora | 78c | 2,650$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.2 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…ff18backed Level UP | 20c | 2,458$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.87 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…a328backed Level UP | 19c | 2,409$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.57 | 283 | 47%133 W · 150 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf991…3965backed Level UP | 12c | 2,222$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.64 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Level UP | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Level UP | 16c | 1,944$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.74 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a8…6107backed Level UP | 23c | 1,921$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.17 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed Level UP | 4c | 1,495$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…54c4backed Level UP | 23c | 1,308$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.8 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Level UP | 18c | 1,236$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.36 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed Level UP | 19c | 1,200$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 304 | 52.3%159 W · 145 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb69…cfd1backed Level UP | 14c | 1,181$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…f6c5backed Level UP | 8c | 1,040$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked Level UP | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 378 | 11.1%42 W · 336 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a77…e59dbacked Level UP | 19c | 990.37$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.53 | 220 | 31.8%70 W · 150 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Level UP | 2c | 900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…eabbbacked Level UP | 5c | 773.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed Level UP | 12c | 750$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…c05fbacked Level UP | 2c | 749.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 169 | 32.5%55 W · 114 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31cb…2442backed Level UP | 16c | 731.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Aurora | 78c | 699.99$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Level UP | 16c | 580.03$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b34…e95dbacked Level UP | 20c | 549.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3752…2f08backed Aurora | 77c | 532.86$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.56 | 344 | 42.2%145 W · 199 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13b…701ebacked Aurora | 80c | 500.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.29 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Level UP | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Aurora | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Level UP | 17c | 411.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Level UP | 9c | 359.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6f…9f0abacked Level UP | 11c | 341$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Level UP | 18c | 339.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc646…e394backed Aurora | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 376 | 55.1%207 W · 169 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Level UP | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Level UP | 13c | 246.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21cc…54bcbacked Level UP | 19c | 237.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Level UP | 15c | 235.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056e…cd80backed Level UP | 18c | 233.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…e53bbacked Level UP | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Aurora | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Level UP | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Level UP | 22c | 178.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc159…f3c8backed Level UP | 6c | 176.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 38.5%74 W · 118 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 78c | 170$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…0491backed Level UP | 13c | 169.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Level UP | 13c | 161.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435f…2de6backed Aurora | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Level UP | 17c | 139.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x631a…a80fbacked Aurora | 76c | 130.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Level UP | 27c | 126.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Aurora | 73c | 125.93$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Aurora | 76c | 125$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x029e…b19cbacked Aurora | 55c | 124.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +46%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Level UP | 18c | 112.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Aurora | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Aurora | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…6345backed Aurora | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Level UP | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 276 | 36.2%100 W · 176 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Level UP | 19c | 68.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Aurora | 75c | 67.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…af4dbacked Aurora | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +12.5wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…172abacked Level UP | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 322 | 52.5%169 W · 153 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa781…8745backed Aurora | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…516bbacked Aurora | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4420…5658backed Aurora | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Aurora | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Aurora | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Aurora (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group BAurora won
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.