Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Level UP vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ffe8fd4966cfb1b2dadc892f8188dc0e355ee9bc252df92297746a6b9828db6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Level UP, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Level UP | 1c | 24,234$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.72 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Level UP | 13c | 2,914$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.37 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Level UP | 14c | 2,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Level UP | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Level UP | 14c | 1,659$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.53 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Level UP | 14c | 1,548$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.02 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc592…1ccebacked Level UP | 15c | 1,077$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.94 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024c…5fa1backed Level UP | 13c | 1,038$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Level UP | 13c | 1,010$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.45 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…2dadbacked Level UP | 16c | 886.68$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Level UP | 15c | 794.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.81 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Level UP | 15c | 744.2$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed Level UP | 6c | 722.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Level UP | 12c | 663$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…ea3cbacked Level UP | 5c | 543.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Level UP | 19c | 534.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b34…e95dbacked Level UP | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Level UP | 5c | 486.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Level UP | 16c | 444.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…0af2backed Level UP | 5c | 440$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a83…0be8backed Level UP | 5c | 426.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Level UP | 14c | 394$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Level UP | 15c | 350.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Level UP | 9c | 288.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Level UP | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Level UP | 10c | 214.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Level UP | 7c | 210.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…7fb5backed Level UP | 11c | 194.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21cc…54bcbacked Level UP | 15c | 193.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Level UP | 7c | 155.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfeb…763ebacked Level UP | 14c | 122.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Level UP | 15c | 71.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Aurora (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group BAurora won
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.