Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa80f363ee7e58058f480bcdbf2c8fb632c7fe765a38906da660e9501d5ef14c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grind Backof Grind Back, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Grind Back | 38c | 1,025$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.01 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Carstensz | 58c | 796.12$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.37 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Carstensz | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Carstensz | 65c | 556.81$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.75 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Carstensz | 64c | 501.58$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.51 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Carstensz | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Grind Back | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb6…944cbacked Carstensz | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Carstensz | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Grind Back | 37c | 255$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.65 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Carstensz | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Carstensz | 8c | 189.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Grind Back | 36c | 151.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.24 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Carstensz | 17c | 136.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Grind Back | 39c | 107.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Grind Back | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Grind Back | 63c | 91.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Carstensz | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…d823backed Carstensz | 45c | 44.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed Grind Back | 36c | 41.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Carstensz | 61c | 40.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Grind Back | 65c | 30.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Carstensz | 62c | 24.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed Carstensz | 70c | 21.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Carstensz | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGrind Back won
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 WinnerGrind Back won
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 WinnerGrind Back won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.