TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grind Backof Grind Back, Carstensz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,857
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,849

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,857 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86b1…c094backed Carstensz3c3,146$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.865625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed Grind Back65c2,865$1,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.2830667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Grind Back60c2,480$1,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.3523561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Grind Back60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80079859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Carstensz42c1,487$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6231,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Carstensz56c1,101$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.6230844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed Carstensz42c1,097$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.3928347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Grind Back60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Carstensz40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40029243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Carstensz33c951.45$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.661,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Grind Back55c802.09$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.8362841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Carstensz49c750$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.8722240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Grind Back47c701.14$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.1454246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Carstensz40c691.79$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.721,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Grind Back60c662.6$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.0486659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Carstensz36c652.09$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.2718437.5%69 W · 115 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Carstensz32c637.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.3415639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Carstensz50c607.83$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.7432756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Carstensz41c596.74$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.6758356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Grind Back71c542.53$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.4360251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Carstensz41c527.83$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.571,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed Carstensz6c511.13$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.393323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Carstensz34c476.8$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.9840534.6%140 W · 265 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Grind Back58c474.54$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.552,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…46ddbacked Carstensz36c470.31$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.311546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6707…d4d8backed Carstensz42c464.66$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.113764.2%88 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Grind Back62c438.82$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.4743067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Carstensz44c419.13$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.691,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Grind Back51c400$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19896245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88aa…2f5ebacked Grind Back59c382.04$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.643455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Grind Back59c374.97$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.7453758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked Grind Back60c292.95$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9831052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fac…b89abacked Carstensz70c287.79$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.7322450%112 W · 112 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Carstensz32c279$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0279341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Grind Back59c276.9$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.4216553.3%88 W · 77 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Carstensz43c276$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4417443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Carstensz42c263.32$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2434041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Grind Back63c259.69$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.091,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d54…4d13backed Grind Back63c250$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Grind Back55c242.16$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.791,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Grind Back62c232.26$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.2614763.3%93 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Grind Back56c231.92$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.921,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Carstensz33c226.22$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7656945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Carstensz33c225.8$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3958746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Carstensz45c222.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008944.9%40 W · 49 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Carstensz38c221.24$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8757735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed Grind Back60c205.17$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1720949.8%104 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Carstensz37c199.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.971,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Carstensz35c187.45$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1630146.2%139 W · 162 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Carstensz27c154.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2412432.3%40 W · 84 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Grind Back56c147.16$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1371143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Grind Back51c137.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2554648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Grind Back58c134.8$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.621,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Grind Back61c125$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7516232.7%53 W · 109 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-29.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Carstensz52c125$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6514452.1%75 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a83…0be8backed Carstensz45c123.05$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.675545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0472…c3bfbacked Grind Back43c119.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.898048.8%39 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Carstensz36c119.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.259254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Carstensz44c115.23$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.78645.3%39 W · 47 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Carstensz39c107.51$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3958943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Carstensz31c102.4$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0989238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e5f…6ee5backed Grind Back59c101.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.814944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2a5…2cbdbacked Carstensz41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc952…3c89backed Carstensz41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Grind Back64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3665863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Carstensz42c97.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.515342.5%65 W · 88 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Carstensz36c92.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4752046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Carstensz26c79.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.391,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8a…a117backed Carstensz44c78.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.671711.8%2 W · 15 L-5.4wins-0.32per pick43cpaid-82.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Grind Back63c67.07$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8881345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Carstensz44c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.418356.8%104 W · 79 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89d6…f4dcbacked Carstensz57c59$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.63728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.32per pick61cpaid-48.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Carstensz37c55.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6819449%95 W · 99 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Grind Back44c55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.864547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Carstensz42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2137655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d8…c931backed Carstensz40c49.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011946.2%55 W · 64 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked Carstensz40c48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.27538.7%29 W · 46 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Carstensz26c42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7268345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc70…8be9backed Carstensz37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525354.5%138 W · 115 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d7f…fe7bbacked Carstensz54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.63748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed Grind Back60c36.31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5238759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Carstensz57c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9574549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Carstensz37c34.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9714848%71 W · 77 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a6a…c834backed Grind Back71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.17366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x239c…f7c2backed Grind Back59c27.11$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.121450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Carstensz40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1016456.7%93 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Grind Back54c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.497659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Grind Back59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2566545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbf…49c1backed Carstensz40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-38.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04ed…172abacked Grind Back54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.232252.5%169 W · 153 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Grind Back56c18.24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0320030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.