Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbed64a0ffd4c639cedcf2243212101941bb896d7df6c11477dbb6d2491c68e3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grind Backof Grind Back, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Carstensz | 3c | 3,146$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aec…4ce9backed Grind Back | 65c | 2,865$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.28 | 306 | 67.3%206 W · 100 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…158ebacked Grind Back | 60c | 2,480$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.35 | 235 | 61.7%145 W · 90 L | +19.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Grind Back | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Carstensz | 42c | 1,487$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Carstensz | 56c | 1,101$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.62 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…a328backed Carstensz | 42c | 1,097$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.39 | 283 | 47%133 W · 150 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Grind Back | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Carstensz | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Carstensz | 33c | 951.45$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.66 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Grind Back | 55c | 802.09$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.83 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Carstensz | 49c | 750$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.87 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Grind Back | 47c | 701.14$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.14 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Carstensz | 40c | 691.79$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.72 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Grind Back | 60c | 662.6$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.04 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…9532backed Carstensz | 36c | 652.09$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.27 | 184 | 37.5%69 W · 115 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…f081backed Carstensz | 32c | 637.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.34 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Carstensz | 50c | 607.83$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.74 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Carstensz | 41c | 596.74$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.67 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Grind Back | 71c | 542.53$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.43 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Carstensz | 41c | 527.83$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.57 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed Carstensz | 6c | 511.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Carstensz | 34c | 476.8$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.98 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Grind Back | 58c | 474.54$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.55 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…46ddbacked Carstensz | 36c | 470.31$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Carstensz | 42c | 464.66$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.1 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Grind Back | 62c | 438.82$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.47 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Carstensz | 44c | 419.13$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.69 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Grind Back | 51c | 400$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…2f5ebacked Grind Back | 59c | 382.04$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.64 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Grind Back | 59c | 374.97$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.74 | 537 | 58.8%316 W · 221 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Grind Back | 60c | 292.95$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b89abacked Carstensz | 70c | 287.79$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.73 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Carstensz | 32c | 279$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Grind Back | 59c | 276.9$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.42 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Carstensz | 43c | 276$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.44 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Carstensz | 42c | 263.32$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Grind Back | 63c | 259.69$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Grind Back | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Grind Back | 55c | 242.16$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.79 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Grind Back | 62c | 232.26$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.26 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Grind Back | 56c | 231.92$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Carstensz | 33c | 226.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Carstensz | 33c | 225.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Carstensz | 45c | 222.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Carstensz | 38c | 221.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.87 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…53d0backed Grind Back | 60c | 205.17$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Carstensz | 37c | 199.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Carstensz | 35c | 187.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Carstensz | 27c | 154.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Grind Back | 56c | 147.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Grind Back | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Grind Back | 58c | 134.8$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Grind Back | 61c | 125$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 162 | 32.7%53 W · 109 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Carstensz | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a83…0be8backed Carstensz | 45c | 123.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c3bfbacked Grind Back | 43c | 119.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Carstensz | 36c | 119.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Carstensz | 44c | 115.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Carstensz | 39c | 107.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Carstensz | 31c | 102.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed Grind Back | 59c | 101.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a5…2cbdbacked Carstensz | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…3c89backed Carstensz | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Grind Back | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Carstensz | 42c | 97.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Carstensz | 36c | 92.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Carstensz | 26c | 79.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…a117backed Carstensz | 44c | 78.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Grind Back | 63c | 67.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Carstensz | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89d6…f4dcbacked Carstensz | 57c | 59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Carstensz | 37c | 55.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Grind Back | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc646…e394backed Carstensz | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 376 | 55.1%207 W · 169 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d8…c931backed Carstensz | 40c | 49.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Carstensz | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Carstensz | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed Carstensz | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7f…fe7bbacked Carstensz | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Grind Back | 60c | 36.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Carstensz | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Carstensz | 37c | 34.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…c834backed Grind Back | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239c…f7c2backed Grind Back | 59c | 27.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Carstensz | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed Grind Back | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Grind Back | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Carstensz | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…172abacked Grind Back | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 322 | 52.5%169 W · 153 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed Grind Back | 56c | 18.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 200 | 30.5%61 W · 139 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGrind Back won
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 WinnerGrind Back won
- Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5)Grind Back won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.