TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grind Backof Grind Back, Carstensz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,013

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,337 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52f9…1fb2backed Carstensz31c6,298$1,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9473627.8%10 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Carstensz23c5,085$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.7516539.4%65 W · 100 L-0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Carstensz28c1,712$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.3956545%254 W · 311 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Grind Back74c1,697$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.932,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Carstensz27c1,667$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.5158346.3%270 W · 313 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Carstensz28c1,268$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.9158742.8%251 W · 336 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Carstensz30c1,261$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.9330146.2%139 W · 162 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Grind Back80c1,111$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Grind Back70c1,073$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.3371143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Grind Back64c1,007$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.581,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d54…4d13backed Grind Back80c1,002$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.46560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Grind Back77c1,000$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.3262841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe84a…02febacked Grind Back61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Grind Back64c999.98$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.9921146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Grind Back76c930.94$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.0330844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Carstensz33c900.38$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed Grind Back62c860.99$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.33534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Grind Back63c800.55$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.7223342.9%100 W · 133 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Grind Back63c789.48$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.4847457.4%272 W · 202 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f0b…ef1dbacked Grind Back65c777.49$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.121838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Grind Back68c738.97$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.61,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Carstensz36c698$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.214734%16 W · 31 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked Carstensz31c649.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010437.5%39 W · 65 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x557e…5007backed Grind Back80c630$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Carstensz37c601.44$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.5361249.7%304 W · 308 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Carstensz37c577.98$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.7429043.4%126 W · 164 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Carstensz37c535.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Grind Back63c506.41$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.411,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Grind Back65c505.38$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.4713941.7%58 W · 81 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed Carstensz40c503.22$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.6437549.3%185 W · 190 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fac…b89abacked Carstensz20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022450%112 W · 112 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Grind Back67c500$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.2774549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Carstensz34c499.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9951544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Carstensz33c485.14$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.181029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Carstensz39c482.23$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1886544.6%29 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Grind Back67c447.76$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.7633951.3%174 W · 165 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x206c…2b8dbacked Carstensz33c428.88$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.53742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Grind Back75c374.97$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.891,69141.4%700 W · 991 L-40.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Grind Back72c365.09$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.191,15147.8%550 W · 601 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Grind Back80c362.88$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5853758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Grind Back64c356.18$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.442850%14 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a9d…9805backed Grind Back63c349.21$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.211060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Grind Back65c302.68$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5112345.5%56 W · 67 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b3…c2d7backed Carstensz40c275.93$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1104566.7%30 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x88aa…2f5ebacked Grind Back66c266.61$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.653455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Carstensz35c255.03$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.948536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc542…7fe1backed Grind Back63c250$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Grind Back71c247$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7215069.3%104 W · 46 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Grind Back79c245$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5552046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f0…9384backed Grind Back63c238.95$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.951442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Grind Back75c212$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4590756.1%509 W · 398 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Grind Back80c205$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411,25549.6%623 W · 632 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Carstensz36c194.44$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c27…97c2backed Grind Back66c194.41$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.12835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24dc…25abbacked Grind Back63c190.95$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.751764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed Grind Back69c188.77$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7221769.1%150 W · 67 L+16.9wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c10…26eabacked Carstensz36c188.04$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Carstensz41c166.66$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7813850%69 W · 69 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Grind Back59c164$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6523336.9%86 W · 147 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…0436backed Grind Back62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe24e…eecebacked Grind Back62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.295156.9%29 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Grind Back58c159.93$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1726445.1%119 W · 145 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Grind Back64c158.55$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.331,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe187…a69cbacked Grind Back68c157.84$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.844367.4%29 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf6f…9f0abacked Carstensz43c143.82$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1516139.8%64 W · 97 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Carstensz38c142.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.375836.2%21 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a83…0be8backed Grind Back75c141.27$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.925545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc48…24c3backed Grind Back61c140$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.61637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Grind Back63c138.3$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2387838.3%336 W · 542 L-42.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Grind Back78c136.43$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6120030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Carstensz19c124$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7622543.6%98 W · 127 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Grind Back62c120$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.640844.1%180 W · 228 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Carstensz35c120$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4215147.7%72 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Carstensz33c120$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1278516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2230…c3b7backed Grind Back65c116.39$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.22839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Grind Back58c113.51$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9866545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Carstensz13c104$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4363447.6%302 W · 332 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e5f…6ee5backed Grind Back66c103.14$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.074944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked Grind Back61c101.9$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.121253.8%114 W · 98 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc566…f8d7backed Grind Back65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3515843%68 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8106…bd36backed Carstensz33c90.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x239c…f7c2backed Carstensz24c87.28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.021450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb654…7be3backed Grind Back59c83.05$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.051060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73c3…fd98backed Grind Back62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e48…828fbacked Grind Back62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.65425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-59.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Grind Back62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.652536%9 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc06b…76ddbacked Grind Back62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa2e…9d98backed Grind Back62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked Carstensz25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Grind Back76c80$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.215337.3%57 W · 96 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed Grind Back63c79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2317952.5%94 W · 85 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked Grind Back53c78.3$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.811645.7%53 W · 63 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaeab…fd91backed Carstensz39c77.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-52.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Grind Back69c76.72$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.647659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Grind Back57c75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2512432.3%40 W · 84 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Grind Back80c74.55$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.911,89447.7%903 W · 991 L+6.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Carstensz31c74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.947044.3%31 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Grind Back59c71.19$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1919155.5%106 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf120…ce3cbacked Grind Back59c67.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.81947.4%9 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed Grind Back59c67.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.238940.4%36 W · 53 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.