TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grind Backof Grind Back, Carstensz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,211
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,211 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf3ce…a57abacked Carstensz44c3,730$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6261,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Carstensz33c3,585$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.7947650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Grind Back57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8601,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Carstensz33c1,967$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.381,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Carstensz6c1,850$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.565625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Grind Back68c1,530$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.6650353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Grind Back56c1,259$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.161,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Carstensz34c1,185$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.6330844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Carstensz40c1,166$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.729243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Grind Back60c1,164$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.11,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Grind Back62c1,152$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.5154246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Carstensz32c1,115$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.742,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Carstensz1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed Carstensz50c921$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.2528347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Grind Back79c799.98$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16853758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Grind Back68c736.06$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.761,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Grind Back65c676.93$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.560251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Carstensz16c651.24$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0889238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Grind Back68c649.52$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.9322240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Grind Back80c595.11$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.0235960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Carstensz26c590$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.536547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed Carstensz3c579.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.313323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Carstensz34c510.22$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7962841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Grind Back57c509.14$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.4671143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Grind Back53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23550769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Grind Back57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21574549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Carstensz19c483.98$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2415639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x952a…bdc8backed Grind Back55c423.49$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.578469%58 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Carstensz30c383.84$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.31,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ab…20e9backed Grind Back56c354.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.583762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Carstensz49c336.98$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.5966947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Carstensz24c323.2$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Carstensz24c313$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7450032.2%161 W · 339 L-47.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Grind Back63c310$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.789938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed Carstensz45c309.25$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2438759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Grind Back49c307.79$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.9732756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Carstensz24c290.22$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.512432.3%40 W · 84 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed Grind Back65c288.97$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8221769.1%150 W · 67 L+16.9wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Carstensz33c251.52$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8340442.3%171 W · 233 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Grind Back71c250$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.514452.1%75 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fac…b89abacked Carstensz42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022450%112 W · 112 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Grind Back60c227.07$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.041,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Carstensz35c195.43$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4320030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Carstensz13c193.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6753538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Grind Back65c179.94$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8766545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Carstensz39c179.49$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Carstensz17c176.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1415337.3%57 W · 96 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Grind Back59c161.79$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5891553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a83…0be8backed Grind Back61c160.7$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.235545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Carstensz26c150$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1978516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Carstensz39c143.58$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5615147.7%72 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Carstensz24c125.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2268345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Carstensz39c115.88$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5158746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Grind Back49c110$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.115050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Carstensz39c110$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.259254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Grind Back56c108.83$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.891,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Grind Back57c106$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5826147.9%125 W · 136 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a3a…269fbacked Carstensz53c103.24$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554050%20 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc952…3c89backed Carstensz51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.53342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Grind Back55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9265863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Grind Back48c90.91$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3819053.2%101 W · 89 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked Carstensz38c90.42$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3625851.2%132 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf120…ce3cbacked Carstensz38c89.4$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341947.4%9 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f6b…b245backed Grind Back64c78.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+33.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Grind Back69c78.2$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2465647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked Grind Back57c70.17$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1754659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Carstensz35c69.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2381345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Grind Back70c67$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.123561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Carstensz43c64.6$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7730146.2%139 W · 162 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Carstensz47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.218356.8%104 W · 79 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ac…fd38backed Carstensz41c57.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.551540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88aa…2f5ebacked Grind Back65c54$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.813455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ad…34cebacked Grind Back57c50.88$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.884845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid+0.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca08…08bdbacked Grind Back55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.58851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed Grind Back49c44.04$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2428252.1%147 W · 135 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2afa…a29ebacked Carstensz46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203138.7%12 W · 19 L-5.7wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-42.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Carstensz40c39.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8158943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Grind Back51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2254648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6707…d4d8backed Grind Back78c34.54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4913764.2%88 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Carstensz36c32.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.647659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Grind Back52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8521344.1%94 W · 119 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43a8…d77fbacked Grind Back59c28.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.644768.1%32 W · 15 L+7.1wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+28.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd932…af3cbacked Grind Back55c26.93$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.034854.2%26 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4270…6168backed Grind Back64c23.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.512352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d7f…fe7bbacked Carstensz53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.63748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.