Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa84fb3456c44016715eac7025507be4773004ddf537bd1db778adccc3c7525bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,444$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.61 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 21c | 735.22$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.98 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 472.25$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked No | 80c | 450$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 67c | 445.26$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.14 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 431.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.13 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 287.66$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 245.32$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 29c | 241.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 19c | 214.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 213.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 75c | 197$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 77c | 163.19$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 16c | 148.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 36c | 140.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 139.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 126.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 23c | 119.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 119.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 25c | 92.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 21c | 90.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 85.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 18c | 84.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 79.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 42c | 76.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…51f6backed Yes | 26c | 76.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 72c | 68.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 20c | 63.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 63.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…a45abacked Yes | 22c | 62.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 61.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 53.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2932…25e6backed Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 77c | 49.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 60c | 48.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 28c | 48.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 47.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 76c | 47.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 33c | 42.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 41.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 78c | 40.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…5f7ebacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 40c | 31.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9306backed Yes | 36c | 30.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed No | 71c | 27.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 75c | 26.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…5ec5backed No | 77c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 74c | 24.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 24.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 69c | 24.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 23.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed No | 80c | 22.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 66c | 21.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 72c | 20.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 76c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb4…5071backed No | 76c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 68c | 17.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 78c | 16.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 78c | 15.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 75c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 80c | 13.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.