Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd06161653f42c7ba495b4d41f29a0f316e295f6a527b6ff4cc24c5ff5e78b75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf882…a45abacked No | 1c | 2,584$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 485.06$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 54c | 350.16$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.35 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 335.18$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 335.15$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 21c | 288.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 42c | 282.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.23 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 60c | 280.64$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.11 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked Yes | 72c | 266.01$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 49c | 206.05$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 27c | 195.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 158.86$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 52c | 134.74$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 125.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 51c | 124.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 57c | 99.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 70c | 97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 59c | 87.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 23c | 78.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 48c | 77.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 41c | 76.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 15c | 71.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked No | 51c | 69.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 32c | 63.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 26c | 62.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 47c | 60.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 44c | 57.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 23c | 54.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 42c | 50.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 62c | 50.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 61c | 48.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 47.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 58c | 46.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 39.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 39.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 39c | 39.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 52c | 39.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…f500backed Yes | 66c | 38.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 40c | 37.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 37.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 58c | 37.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 61c | 36.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 41c | 36.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 49c | 33.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…792abacked Yes | 56c | 32.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…5f7ebacked No | 49c | 30.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 64c | 30.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 59c | 30.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 54c | 29.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 67c | 28.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b823backed No | 53c | 28.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 47c | 28.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 52c | 28.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 56c | 28.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…3f76backed Yes | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…4801backed No | 58c | 26.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cd…81d9backed Yes | 39c | 26.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 66c | 26.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 51c | 26.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 68c | 23.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 57c | 22.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 56c | 21.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…6ed2backed No | 69c | 21.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed No | 51c | 19.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 77c | 19.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 67c | 18.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 65c | 17.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.