Champions League · resolved market
FK Crvena zvezda leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa85718d310e07a3ed068832d033290071c99f277a2afe9c6a290d36e30c052e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Yes | 63c | 5,520$3,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,461.42 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 37c | 2,006$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.78 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 37c | 1,187$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.77 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 64c | 533.08$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.75 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 60c | 481$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.71 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 41c | 471.3$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.01 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 40c | 449.99$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.5 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Yes | 60c | 312.12$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.27 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 61c | 290.14$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.99 | 338 | 44.7%151 W · 187 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 62c | 284.31$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.87 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 38c | 269$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.59 | 230 | 31.7%73 W · 157 L | -18.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 39c | 172$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked No | 42c | 147.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.82 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…9626backed Yes | 56c | 105.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 44c | 100.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 306 | 56.9%174 W · 132 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…68dabacked No | 43c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 39c | 35.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Yes | 34c | 29.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 64c | 28.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 68c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Crvena zvezda leading at halftime?this page
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva: Draw at halftime?Yes won
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.