Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa868d7b279002dfa4e57734385e4d15493a7ea93590e9f4e49e7540c40ec897d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 1,385$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.07 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 18c | 964.69$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.64 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bb…b369backed Over | 68c | 752.59$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7441…cb79backed Under | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 67c | 447.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.9 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 15c | 305.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 66c | 301.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.41 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Under | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…42fbbacked Under | 20c | 195$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d4…7f3bbacked Over | 80c | 185$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 12c | 157.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 151.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Under | 21c | 116.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 67c | 89.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 33c | 71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 32c | 70.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…1432backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Under | 36c | 34.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed2…502dbacked Over | 67c | 28.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 76c | 22.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 71c | 16.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 79c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad9…6044backed Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Over | 77c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.