Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2552f424709908737f936c6fafda480b07794df9f8b7d52997bfd9338652d9fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Over | 59c | 33,969$20,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,936.34 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 41c | 8,767$3,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,594.32 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 55c | 7,321$3,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,322.43 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 6,198$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520.44 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 41c | 5,805$2,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,373.67 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Under | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 41c | 4,292$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.8 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Over | 57c | 3,735$2,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 2,625$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.46 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 41c | 2,370$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 43c | 1,998$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.96 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 48c | 1,634$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 47c | 1,410$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.2 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b7…dbdabacked Under | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 40c | 1,125$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 46c | 1,092$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.5 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 42c | 952.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5650…8cbabacked Over | 69c | 949$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 40c | 855$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.17 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…54cebacked Over | 59c | 681.36$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 78c | 650$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 42c | 625.58$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.42 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Under | 64c | 469.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 54c | 459.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.13 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…5ddebacked Under | 43c | 413.95$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 70c | 360.61$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…4a45backed Under | 5c | 298.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 71c | 290$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 59c | 283.48$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.71 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 37c | 276.63$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 51c | 212$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.96 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…405fbacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…74dabacked Under | 43c | 180$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…f75cbacked Under | 45c | 129.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Under | 44c | 113.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Under | 42c | 102.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 54c | 98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Under | 35c | 89.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…5cc6backed Under | 41c | 89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Under | 53c | 82.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4085…583fbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Under | 33c | 70.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…ffb3backed Over | 58c | 65.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 45c | 62.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 56.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Over | 57c | 55.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +79%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 27c | 52.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Under | 40c | 41.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Over | 57c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 55cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…3e75backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Under | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…3215backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Under | 42c | 28.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…4c08backed Under | 42c | 23.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 55c | 18.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 58c | 18.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.