Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4aa682dd36437efcacb0d02b89639f6c0dd41d98190c5b0a6413f713150f7f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fbb…4db6backed Over | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6218…f388backed Over | 80c | 4,520$3,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,611.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ad…bcdabacked Under | 20c | 4,445$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,556.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 2,195$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.68 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b7…dbdabacked Under | 64c | 1,563$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Under | 64c | 1,431$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 473.23$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.49 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 38c | 397.06$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 63c | 396.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 26c | 391.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 74c | 346.46$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Under | 19c | 308$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 65c | 299.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.24 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Under | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Under | 74c | 264.8$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 63c | 239.96$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…6129backed Under | 63c | 230$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…44adbacked Over | 49c | 202.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…3a3bbacked Under | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…e058backed Over | 31c | 199$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…ee8ebacked Over | 35c | 195$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Under | 60c | 189.62$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 53c | 171.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 30c | 164.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…4be7backed Over | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 37c | 149.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 65c | 142.75$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 117.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 79c | 99.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Under | 65c | 92.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…16c9backed Over | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 42c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 42c | 67.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Under | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 62.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 52c | 61.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 60c | 59.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…3328backed Under | 57c | 56.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Under | 59c | 51.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Under | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a53…70a1backed Over | 38c | 41.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 78c | 37.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…1432backed Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 58c | 28.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Over | 38c | 27.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…0814backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df1…38cdbacked Under | 64c | 27.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb16…9757backed Under | 67c | 19.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a20…a8d6backed Over | 80c | 12.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.