Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8830a8e2dd1f0d384081310c8079bca4660a3b769983bf037c51c044153b856
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 59c | 404.16$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.71 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 17c | 394.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 338$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.42 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 52c | 154.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.92 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 104.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 36c | 97.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 41c | 95.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 56c | 93.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 78c | 91.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 55c | 89.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 74c | 84.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 53c | 82.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 51c | 72.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 26c | 69.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 48c | 66.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 62c | 62.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 57c | 50.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…26b7backed No | 61c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 25c | 45.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 44.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked No | 32c | 44.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 47c | 43.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 50c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 38.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 38.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 73c | 34.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ca08backed Yes | 57c | 33.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 77c | 31.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x520f…8945backed Yes | 64c | 31.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed Yes | 40c | 30.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf1…dd6bbacked Yes | 67c | 28.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ac…9230backed Yes | 75c | 26.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 44c | 24.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 54c | 23.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 58c | 23.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 60c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 50c | 20.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…2fcbbacked No | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 75c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…1631backed Yes | 76c | 13.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…d85cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.