MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa887501441c1c069ea68af172b76e670ad8391329b55ff3637c7327981843c98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 25c | 1,409$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.07 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 20c | 849.84$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.28 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 737.61$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.53 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 687.15$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.28 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 615.15$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.15 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 586.62$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.03 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Angels | 12c | 227.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 492 | 46.1%227 W · 265 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 173 | 39.9%69 W · 104 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 29c | 99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 312 | 47.8%149 W · 163 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 98.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0a…f8b9backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 91.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Los Angeles Angels | 28c | 88.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 3,866 | 42.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 342 | 33.9%116 W · 226 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 47.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 45.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1,501 | 63.4%951 W · 550 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 38.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Los Angeles Angels | 53c | 27.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles AngelsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.