MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66c318679fd8bcf23327c3aab207bcb20fa7f148beec2580b2f01351e3a43e89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 48c | 100,000$48,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,999.93 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 29,959$16,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,829.72 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 15,501$8,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,537.15 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 52c | 13,777$7,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,628.62 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 52c | 13,192$6,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,332.16 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Under | 52c | 10,356$5,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,970.72 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 29c | 8,518$2,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,482.93 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…a5a8backed Under | 46c | 6,000$2,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,265.42 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 49c | 5,762$2,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,957.48 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 52c | 5,519$2,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,646.14 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 67c | 4,299$2,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.55 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 48c | 4,004$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.92 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 52c | 3,848$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.04 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 2,882$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.07 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 48c | 2,154$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.09 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 1,840$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.14 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 52c | 1,008$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.73 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 52c | 934.96$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.78 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 697.51$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.96 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 52c | 654.58$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.2 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 49c | 646.2$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.64 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Under | 71c | 550.96$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.78 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…68b2backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 53c | 493$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.71 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 346.47$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.24 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 47c | 327.66$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.36 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 50c | 319.14$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.14 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 55c | 275$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.25 | 290 | 43.1%125 W · 165 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 193 | 43.5%84 W · 109 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 31c | 238.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 201 | 61.2%123 W · 78 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Under | 48c | 199.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.63 | 134 | 38.8%52 W · 82 L | -12.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 13c | 198$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 164 | 39%64 W · 100 L | -12.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 174.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 50c | 172.27$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.88 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Under | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Over | 31c | 124.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 33c | 123.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 67c | 120.04$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 12c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 282 | 45.7%129 W · 153 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 54c | 102.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 48c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 551 | 46.8%258 W · 293 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x003f…3805backed Under | 78c | 97.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 84.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 81.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 30c | 77.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 61c | 75.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 325 | 52.9%172 W · 153 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…32b7backed Under | 53c | 71.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 66.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Under | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Under | 49c | 50.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Over | 31c | 46.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Over | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 462 | 51.7%239 W · 223 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 57c | 33.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 36c | 32.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 49c | 32.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 50c | 28.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 119 | 62.2%74 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Under | 59c | 26.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Over | 41c | 24.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Over | 41c | 24.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 52c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles AngelsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.