Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa89fe66da0aacb19ba7176f14f31d4facc64c685a4ce228dd5e40d6d8e2d37e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 31c | 1,485$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.33 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 380.2$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 32c | 286.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 266$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 14c | 209.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 35c | 203$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 159.06$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 157.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed Yes | 8c | 147.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 124.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed Yes | 35c | 113.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 110.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 16c | 98.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked Yes | 21c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 70c | 56.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 43.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 39.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 26.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 23.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 87°F or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.