Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd296e56d9862d9247b9ce5af88743cf084050f8dd1819aeff70b306a948f609d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 44c | 539.4$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.79 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 45c | 504.82$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.2 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 334.89$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…f7edbacked No | 54c | 271.83$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.76 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 266.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.75 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 61c | 246.59$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 194.01$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 184.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 55c | 182$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.53 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 180$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 46c | 122.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 121.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 38c | 121.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 115.03$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 110.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 108.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 54c | 94.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 54c | 91.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 90.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 84.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 78.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 66.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 55.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 59c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 52c | 52.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 52.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 60c | 50.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 50.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 69c | 49.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 38c | 46.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 54c | 46.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 45.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 50c | 44.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 43.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 37c | 40.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 38c | 40.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 40.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 41c | 39.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 32.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 74c | 26.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 78c | 26.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 25.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 41c | 25.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 63c | 18.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 18.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 80c | 17.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…55b9backed No | 67c | 16.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…1b2bbacked No | 75c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 87°F or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.