Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Alverca end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8a9949e5f90c1ebb260a7a3413a10dd3827f3e84dfd331eca2c1c77d79e465c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 63c | 4,817$3,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800.56 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 34c | 3,083$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.99 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Yes | 40c | 2,228$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 1,484$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.74 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 22c | 1,195$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.74 | 447 | 68%304 W · 143 L | +52.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 36c | 1,105$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.75 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 78c | 1,075$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.26 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa569…08dfbacked Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…a431backed Yes | 41c | 734.26$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 19c | 522.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked Yes | 15c | 407.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a2…bb2cbacked Yes | 15c | 331.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 11c | 266.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e0…321bbacked Yes | 11c | 230$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…48bebacked Yes | 42c | 228.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…dacebacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +235.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…a6a0backed Yes | 20c | 195.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…03fabacked Yes | 15c | 192.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4549…0450backed Yes | 19c | 190.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -61%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 12c | 186.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…af34backed Yes | 14c | 181.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18d…43dbbacked Yes | 15c | 156.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 13c | 155.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 327 | 39.4%129 W · 198 L | -22.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 14c | 149.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 24c | 146.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d1…de74backed Yes | 14c | 141.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a9…e80cbacked Yes | 47c | 126.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…bd1cbacked Yes | 20c | 120.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 22c | 113.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Yes | 25c | 100.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…0cd4backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 11c | 99.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 24c | 90.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 60c | 73.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 33c | 60.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…c98bbacked Yes | 37c | 53.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5acf…0df2backed No | 59c | 50.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…623cbacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…e374backed Yes | 37c | 40.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…5b77backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7433…7851backed Yes | 42c | 26.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 47c | 23.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…7e2ebacked No | 70c | 21.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…2208backed No | 77c | 17.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Alverca end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Alverca win on 2026-02-08?No won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.