Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8f01c0d40b6d80169bc39e1d94807fca1cec9c7422e4810344b3a5a49f40c86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 5c | 15,420$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.89 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 32c | 842.99$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.59 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 77c | 574.6$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.18 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 68c | 549.42$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.28 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 252.7$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 12c | 242.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…3d01backed Yes | 52c | 199.38$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed No | 44c | 190.62$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 187.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 48c | 186.72$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 22c | 170$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 32c | 150.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 149.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 139.19$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 71c | 123.25$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…fdbbbacked No | 50c | 117.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 50c | 95.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 80.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 14c | 79.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 33c | 78.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…3bc7backed Yes | 53c | 75.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 69c | 71.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 22c | 69.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 75c | 65.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 49c | 54.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 68c | 52.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 34c | 45.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed Yes | 34c | 42.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 64c | 41.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 58c | 38.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 68c | 36.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked No | 51c | 34.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 35c | 33.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 72c | 27.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed No | 69c | 25.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…fe1bbacked Yes | 71c | 19.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 16.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.