Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dea426133fbd839a5f92952a71ff93b2b21f0ec4fdf35586a4db791811034c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 78c | 1,106$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.82 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb30…0e23backed No | 3c | 684.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 25c | 683.36$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.51 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 348.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 73c | 296.16$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.45 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 11c | 254.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.86 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 250.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb991…aa11backed Yes | 18c | 236.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 202.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.82 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 9c | 199.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 6c | 188.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.01 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 21c | 177$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 18c | 165.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.12 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 18c | 136.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 126.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 117.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 116.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…3bc7backed Yes | 26c | 109.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 33c | 98.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 69c | 93.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 22c | 66.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 31c | 39.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 33.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 47c | 32.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587f…42febacked No | 67c | 26.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 23.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…f52ebacked No | 47c | 22.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1565…3a47backed Yes | 64c | 18.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.