Tennis · resolved market
ITF Champaign: Naoya Honda vs Evan Bynoe
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8faa8607227869500344e6ad617944df55e8886758fec1ebe80a772dc0b4e99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Evan Bynoeof Naoya Honda, Evan Bynoe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Evan Bynoe | 78c | 6,559$5,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.85 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Naoya Honda | 22c | 3,052$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.59 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Naoya Honda | 22c | 1,311$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.27 | 378 | 49.2%186 W · 192 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Naoya Honda | 28c | 600$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e9…80b1backed Naoya Honda | 15c | 412.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 332 | 28.3%94 W · 238 L | -12.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Naoya Honda | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 962 | 55.8%537 W · 425 L | +21.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Naoya Honda | 24c | 243.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Naoya Honda | 41c | 195.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Naoya Honda | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 897 | 54.6%490 W · 407 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Naoya Honda | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 956 | 55.9%534 W · 422 L | +19.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Naoya Honda | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,000 | 49.8%498 W · 502 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Naoya Honda | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 418 | 51.7%216 W · 202 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Naoya Honda | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 967 | 55%532 W · 435 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Naoya Honda | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 533 | 56.7%302 W · 231 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Evan Bynoe | 57c | 112$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Naoya Honda | 25c | 77.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 2,887 | 39.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L | -84.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Evan Bynoe | 78c | 76.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 1,730 | 52.2%903 W · 827 L | -8.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Naoya Honda | 16c | 72.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…c814backed Evan Bynoe | 64c | 66.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 406 | 59.9%243 W · 163 L | +30.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Naoya Honda | 22c | 64.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 235 | 30.2%71 W · 164 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…0123backed Naoya Honda | 42c | 64.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…8ef6backed Naoya Honda | 32c | 61.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -8.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Evan Bynoe | 67c | 61.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 1,289 | 65.2%841 W · 448 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Naoya Honda | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 54.2%562 W · 474 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Naoya Honda | 35c | 50.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Naoya Honda | 27c | 44.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Naoya Honda | 25c | 42.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,459 | 50.1%731 W · 728 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Naoya Honda | 27c | 42.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Naoya Honda | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked Evan Bynoe | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 179 | 72.6%130 W · 49 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Evan Bynoe | 75c | 17.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 502 | 68.3%343 W · 159 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Naoya Honda | 68c | 15.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed Evan Bynoe | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 102 | 66.7%68 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Evan Bynoe | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 252 | 59.9%151 W · 101 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.