Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa912a5cfb2075071d39cec1f5505abee9af1d53d00b922299bc124397ae54cea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 471.03$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…0858backed Yes | 30c | 349.12$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed No | 70c | 285.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 273.53$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…a8cebacked No | 69c | 144.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 30c | 138$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 29c | 127.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 33c | 122.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 67c | 115.71$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 30c | 103.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 27c | 92.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 92.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 32c | 75.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…7105backed No | 72c | 69.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 63.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed Yes | 32c | 63.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 63.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 54.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 19c | 53.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 47.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 29.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 69c | 26.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 66c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…17bcbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 68c | 19.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 69c | 15.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 69c | 15.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 69c | 15.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 13.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.