Serie A · resolved market
Will AC Milan beat Lazio?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa923b3be1f016e68ac557202dc40653937a1afeb94b98f5b382f1c1efcdf73f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 45c | 4,446$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.7 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 55c | 4,361$2,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,965.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 42c | 2,087$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.23 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed No | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 24c | 418.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked No | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 45c | 268.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.63 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 39c | 252.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 33c | 223.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…4864backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 43c | 196.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed No | 79c | 189.74$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x589c…e3e6backed No | 55c | 114.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x893c…9ed2backed Yes | 48c | 113$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 74c | 108.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 47c | 107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…a6babacked Yes | 47c | 105.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…6a4ebacked No | 55c | 100.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.9wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…9973backed Yes | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…f56cbacked No | 54c | 74.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 66c | 67.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +8.7wins | +0.24per pick | 15cpaid | +1,305.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed No | 57c | 67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 53c | 37.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Milan beat Lazio?this page
- Will AC Milan vs. Lazio End in a Draw?No won
- Will Lazio beat AC Milan?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.